Prudentivox Asset Management: The Illusion of Calm: Why Low VIX Shouldn’t Lower Your Guard
If you only look at the headline indices, the market seems to have found its footing. As of late November, the VIX (Market Volatility Index) has settled around 16.35 , a significant retreat from the highs of 26 we saw earlier in the month. The panic seems to have subsided, and the "fear gauge" is no longer flashing red. However, experienced investors know that a VIX in the mid-teens often signals a period of complacency rather than genuine stability. It hasn't yet reached the "super calm" sub-13 levels that characterize a true bull run. Instead, we are in a zone of "alert neutrality." The Macro Paradox: Rate Cuts vs. Hidden Fragility The current optimism is largely fueled by the repricing of the Federal Reserve's trajectory. Futures markets are now pricing in an 80% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in December, up sharply from just 50% a week ago. The narrative is clear: liquidity is coming back. But beneath this surface, structural cracks rem...